Thanks Sam, good thoughts. Regarding exponential teams -
a) AI and AI harnesses (e.g. coding agents) are not yet uniformly advanced for all stages of product development. Coding agents are only now becoming truly useful (probably last six months). Other agents (e.g. for Product requirements) are still in development.
b) Exponentials often look linear at first.
c) As a fact people are building AI-related tools with AI. Case in point - I built a Roo mode-builder with Roo.
d) Most organizations are not building AI, so can't be exponentially. There's evidence of continuously increasing speed at some of the frontier labs that are building the core models.
I think looking at the individual brain is the wrong benchmark. Humans succeed at the level of culture and civilization, these bootstrap our development from conception. I think AI gets subsumed into the infrastructure of our civilization as augments but don't achieve a stand-alone viability.
Thanks Sam, good thoughts. Regarding exponential teams -
a) AI and AI harnesses (e.g. coding agents) are not yet uniformly advanced for all stages of product development. Coding agents are only now becoming truly useful (probably last six months). Other agents (e.g. for Product requirements) are still in development.
b) Exponentials often look linear at first.
c) As a fact people are building AI-related tools with AI. Case in point - I built a Roo mode-builder with Roo.
d) Most organizations are not building AI, so can't be exponentially. There's evidence of continuously increasing speed at some of the frontier labs that are building the core models.
I think looking at the individual brain is the wrong benchmark. Humans succeed at the level of culture and civilization, these bootstrap our development from conception. I think AI gets subsumed into the infrastructure of our civilization as augments but don't achieve a stand-alone viability.