This is the time to keep working

If you hang around the tech world enough, you realize that there are cycles and patterns that repeat themselves. This isn’t new - lots of folks have written about this, and I won’t repeat that writing here. But even though we are all aware of these things, it’s hard to remember them in the moment.

I was at a party this week with a bunch of founders and investors in the AI space. It’s become fashionable, I guess, in Silicon Valley to be a bit more cynical or even negative (“burned out” is a word I hear) about the world of AI. There was more talk of problems than cool ideas, and a general negative vibe. I read an article today along the same lines - lots of problems listed, not many solutions (even for things where I know there is meaningful progress being made).

There are challenges - we are still in the early days, where scaling is hard, we haven’t quite worked out all of the development and release patterns, and we don’t understand fully what the right user models and experiences are. That’s all fine! That happens about now in this kind of cycle.

Here’s the important thing, and the secret: this is the best time to ignore the noise and just keep working. I guarantee that there are a dozen really huge, impactful, world-changing things that are going to come out of work that teams you have never heard of are doing right now. The teams that really have impact are the ones that work through this without disruption.

There was a study some years back about how big companies tend to be founded during recessions. The theory is that something about having to start out being more disciplined helps build a company culture that is more resilient and tough. I think that’s true for the innovation game too. If you can keep being optimistic and creative while it’s “fashionable” to be cynical and negative, you will do well.